Editor’s note :
Dear readers,
First a big thank you for the recent numbers on this blog which have been beyond my expectations (we had more than 5300 views as I’m writing this on the latest episode about “5G and why it’s not dangerous” that you can read here and the number of subscribers quadrupled)

编者按:
亲爱的读者:
首先,我非常感谢你们,最近在这个博客上的数据,超出了我的预期(在我撰写这篇关于“5G&5G为什么不危险”的最新一集时,我们的浏览量超过了5300次,订阅量翻了两番)

Also, thank you to everyone that’s sharing the blog among their circle, I have seen some of you do that whether that’s on Facebook, public forums, Twitter, etc.
Please subscribe if you like it by clicking on subscribe. No spam, you’ll only receive new editions in a nice formatted e-mail.

另外,感谢大家在自己的圈子里分享博客,我看到有些人不管是在Facebook、公共论坛、Twitter等都有这样做。
如果你喜欢,请点击订阅,这里不发垃圾邮件,你只会收到格式精美的新版邮件。


Let’s dig into it.
India Versus China - Wasatch Global Investors
China is taking over, India ? Not so much.

让我们深入研究一下。
《印度 vs 中国 》-华盛顿全球投资者
中国正在接管世界,印度呢? 还差的远。


India has the world's second largest population. The PGR for the country is 1.1. A very large number of India's population, about 50%, is below the age group of 24. This provides the nation with a large workforce for many decades, helping in its growth.

印度是世界上人口第二多的国家,这个国家的 PGR 是1.1,印度有很大一部分人口,大约50%,年龄在24岁以下,这为印度提供了数十年庞大的劳动力,有助于其经济增长。

More than 35 million Indians live across the globe. Under fair opportunities, they have become socio-economically successful— especially in the US and the UK where they are the highest earning ethnic demographic.
超过3500万印度人生活在世界各地,在公平的机会下,他们在社会经济方面取得了成功ーー尤其是在他们收入最高的美国和英国。
Since the start of the 21st century, annual average GDP growth has been 6% to 7%, and from 2014 to 2018, India was the world's fastest growing major economy, surpassing China. Historically, India was the largest economy in the world for most of the two millennia from the 1st until 19th century.

自21世纪初以来,印度的年均 GDP 增长率一直在6% 到7% 之间,从2014年到2018年,印度超过中国,成为世界上增长最快的主要经济体,从历史上看,从公元1世纪到19世纪,印度在两千年的大部分时间里都是世界上最大的经济体。



When will India have more people than China?
Editor’s note : Officially India’s population will surpass China’s very soon but it’s likely already the case.

什么时候印度的人口会超过中国?
编者按: 官方数据显示,印度的人口将很快超过中国,但事实上很可能已经超过了。


What is this demographic challenge? Well, an analysis of global population trends shows that over time, most likely by 2025, India will become the world’s most populous nation. But much of this growth is taking place in two states: Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. These two states are India’s largest and third largest states (with a combined population of 302m), but also India’s two poorest states (with a per capita income ranging from US$347 to US$450 a year). In this light, vibrant economic growth is unlikely to be sustainable in India. We are already witnessing the first signs of stagnation in the Indian economy.

这一人口统计学数字挑战何在? 一项全球人口趋势分析显示,随着时间的推移,很有可能到2025年,印度将成为世界上人口最多的国家,但这种增长主要发生在两个邦: 北方邦和比哈尔邦,这两个邦是印度第一大和第三大邦(总人口为3.02亿) ,但也是印度最贫穷的两个邦(人均年收入在347美元到450美元之间),这种情况下,印度充满活力的经济增长不太可能持续下去,我们已经看到了印度经济停滞的初步迹象。

Part II:
Editor’s note : The woman problem in India is a huge deal, whilst this is improving in big cities, it is still a major problem. In the word of Marx, a healthy society is one where Women and Men are equal. I find it paradoxical that India has a strong Marxist heritage and that the Women are so oppressed, Marxism is definitely pro-Women (Read here)

第二部分:
编者按:
印度的女性问题是个大问题,虽然大城市的女性问题正在改善,但仍然是个大问题。
用马克思的话说,一个健康的社会是男女平等的社会,我发现印度有很强的马克思主义传统,与妇女受到如此压迫,这是矛盾的,马克思主义肯定是支持妇女的。

India is the most dangerous country in the world to be a woman, according to the Thomson Reuters Foundation, citing severely high risks of sexual violence and slave labour, including human trafficking for domestic work, forced labor, forced marriage, and sexual slavery.

根据汤姆森·路透基金会的数据,对女性来说,印度是世界上最危险的国家,它列举了印度严重的性暴力和奴役风险,包括贩卖人口从事家政工作、强迫劳动、强迫婚姻和性奴役。

In India, a rape occurs every 20 minutes, according to the New York Times, with minors being hit at an alarming rate. Five women are raped every day in Delhi alone, the nation’s capital. Delhi has not only the highest crime rate but also the highest rape rate, sitting at 40% relative to 19 major cities, according to India’s National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB).

据《纽约时报》报道,在印度,每20分钟就会发生一起强奸案,其中未成年人被强奸的比率惊人,仅在印度首都德里,每天就有5名妇女被强奸,根据印度国家犯罪记录局(NCRB)的数据,德里不仅是犯罪率最高的地方,也是强奸率最高的地方,德里不仅犯罪率最高,而且强奸率也最高,达到40% 。

India has the highest absolute number of child brides in the world — 15,509,000, according to UNICEF. 27% of girls in India are married off before their 18th birthday — consent or no consent — and 7% are married before the age of 15.

联合国儿童基金会(UNICEF)的数据显示,印度的童养媳绝对数量为全球最高,为1550.9万人,27% 的印度女孩在18岁生日之前结婚,7% 的女孩在15岁之前结婚。

Editor’s note : The gender gap is also a big problem. The root is mainly because a bride’s family must pay the groom’s family a large dowry of cash and gifts. To be perfectly frank, this is fucking stupid and I can’t believe it is still a thing.

编者按:
性别差异也是一个大问题,这主要是因为新娘家必须向新郎家支付一大笔现金和礼物作为嫁妆,老实说,这太他妈愚蠢了,我简直不敢相信这种事情的存在。

So basically, for centuries, instead of mending their own ways, reconsidering their values, and reuating thier beliefs, many Indians think its better to just kill the girl, conveniently.

基本上,几个世纪以来,许多印度人不是修正自己的生活方式,重新考虑自己的价值观,重新评估自己的信仰,而是认为直接杀死这个女孩更好,更方便。

India is a country which has continuously underutilized its potential of the Ocean. She is sitting in the right above the busiest sea routes in the world yet doesn’t have a single transhipment hub. What I’m referring to here is the Heartland-Rimland Theory.

印度是一个一直未充分利用其海洋潜力的国家,她坐落在世界上最繁忙的海上航线的右上方,却没有一个转运枢纽,我这里指的是“中心-边缘地带”理论。

Not even for a single time in its history it has utilized it blue resources completely barring the Great Cholas – The Empire which controlled the Indian Ocean.
Now she needs to break from the old shackles and take some aggressive measures.

在其历史上,除了朱罗王朝(Cholas)控制过印度洋,印度甚至没有一次利用过它的蓝色资源。
现在她需要打破旧的枷锁,采取一些积极的措施。

Editor’s note : Investments in infrastructures is still very much behind China. This picture would never happen in China.

编者按:
图:基础设施投资仍然远远落后于中国,这种场景在中国绝对不会出现。


Consider, for example, the treatment of India’s armed forces. Sitharaman barely mentioned defense spending (indeed, for much of the first half of her speech, she barely mentioned any numbers at all). Perhaps that was because the defense outlay has barely kept up with inflation for years, and under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reached record lows as a percentage of gross domestic product. Not since China humiliated India in a traumatic border war in 1962 has any government allowed defense spending to fall so low. Last year, it came in at less than 1.6% of GDP.

考虑一下印度军队的待遇,西塔拉曼几乎没有提及国防开支 ( 事实上,在她上半场演讲的大部分时间里,她几乎没有提及任何数字), 也许这是因为多年来国防支出几乎跟不上通货膨胀,而且在总理纳伦德拉 · 莫迪的领导下,国防支出占国内生产总值的比例已经创下历史新低。
自从中国在1962年的边境战争中羞辱了印度以来,还没有哪届政府允许国防开支降到如此之低的水平,去年,这个数字还不到 GDP 的1.6% 。

Perhaps you think that, instead of defense, India is investing in its own people, as a 21st-century superpower should do? Well, only 3.4% of total federal spending was budgeted for education — down from 3.74% the previous year and from 4.3% when Modi took over in 2014. And the federal government and state governments together spend less than 1% of GDP on health, a fact which this budget did little to change.

也许你认为,印度正在投资于自己的人民,而不是国防,这不正是一个21世纪的超级大国应该做的吗?
好吧,只有3.4% 的联邦总开支用于教育预算,低于前一年的3.74% 和2014年莫迪上任时的4.3% ,而联邦政府和各邦政府在卫生方面的支出加起来还不到GDP的1%,这个预算几乎没有改变这一事实。