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As indicated in title. It is almost a mathematical certainty that China will overtake the US as the largest economy on the planet. China has more than 4x the population of the US, simple math tells us that it only needs to reach less than 1/4 of US''''s gdp per capita to overtake the US in total size. That level of GDP per capita is lower than each of Japan, Korea, Singapore, HK, Taiwan, or around the level of Portugal

中国将超越美国成为世界上最大的经济体,这几乎是数学上的必然。中国的人口是美国的四倍多,简单的算一下就知道,中国的人均GDP只要差不多达到美国的四分之一就能在总规模上超过美国。这种程度的人均GDP低于日本、韩国、新加坡、香港、台湾,或接近葡萄牙的水平。

Isn''''t this simple math? Why are people even debating this? Is China going to be as advanced as the western economies when it does overtake? No. Is it as advanced as the US? No. Will China overtake the US per capita? Absolutely not in this century. We are just saying in total size, 4x more people is highly likely if not almost certainly will overtake a country with 4x less people.

简单的算一下就可以了, 为什么大家还在争论这个问题?当中国真正超越西方经济体时,它会像西方经济体一样先进吗?不会。它会和美国一样先进吗?不会。中国的人均GDP会超过美国吗?在这个世纪绝对不会。我只是说中国会在总规模上超过,如果用肯定太绝对的话,那就用非常有可能好了,4倍多人口的国家会超过四分之一人口的国家。