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Singapore’s Economy Feeling The Effects Of The US-China Trade War

新加坡经济受到了美中贸易战影响



Singapore stares at a gloomy economic outlook in the third quarter as the Southeast Asia country continues to feel the effects of the ongoing US-China trade war. Various sectors of the economy are already feeling the impact of the trade tensions, especially exports and the industrial and retail property markets.

新加坡第三季度经济增长前景灰暗,这个东南亚国家持续受到了中美贸易战影响。新加坡各行各业感受到了贸易紧张局势的影响,尤其出口和工业及零售地产市场。

Perhaps the most affected sector is manufacturing and exports. This is ss a result of slowing growth in the economy of China, which is the largest market of Singapore. The economy has been tipped to enter recession in the near term as the effects of the trade war continue to rock. In the second quarter, the economy reported a decline in the growth of the economy by 3.3%.

或许受影响最大的是制造业和出口业。因为中国经济增速放缓且中国是新加坡最大海外市场。随着贸易战持续发酵,新加坡经济短期内有进入衰退的迹象。第二季度新加坡经济增速降低3.3%。

Impact of the trade war on Exports

贸易战对新加坡出口的影响



Trade to China has declined in recent months, especially as a result of the tariffs wars with the US. The Chinese economy has slowed, which is the reason imports to the country have slowed. If you consider retail sales in the country, you will realize that macro fundamentals have also slowed. Singapore relies on trade and the majority of its exports are to China. Therefore as the trade war continues to eat in China, it is also having ripple effects on Singapore and other Southeast Asia countries.

受到美国发动贸易战影响,近几个月新加坡对华贸易有所下降。中国经济增速放缓也是中国进口增长放缓的原因之一。如果你研究一下新加坡零售业,你会发现宏观经济也有所放缓。新加坡依赖贸易,其大部分出口又是针对中国。因此随着对华贸易战愈演愈烈,贸易战也对新加坡和其他东南亚国家产生了连锁反应。

Property markets are also slowing in growth

新加坡地产业增速放缓

The deteriorating trade relationship between the US and China has also affected the property markets in Singapore. This has in the process muted the possibility of an economic recovery. According to the head of research at Collier International, Tricia Song, there is a slowing in economic growth in Singapore. In the near term, industrial and retail property markets are expected to feel the heat. If the pace of growth continues, then that will affect consumer confidence. Industrial property markets are also expected to be affected as developers will shelve any expansion plans.

美中贸易关系不断恶化也影响了新加坡的房地产市场。这一贸易战降低了新加坡经济复苏的可能性。科利尔国际研究主管崔茜卡•宋表示新加坡经济增长正在放缓。预计近期内新加坡工业和零售地产市场将感受到压力。如果经济增速放缓,那么将影响消费者信心。预计新加坡工业地产市场也将受到影响,因为开发商会搁置扩张开发计划。

In the past six months, retail rents in Singapore have remained relatively weak. The retail rental index in the central region has dropped by 1.7% from last year. Colliers indicates that rental drops have slowed since last year with the large retail completions expected to taper off from next year. With headwinds prevailing in the retail property market following the slowing of the economy, consumer sentiment may be impacted. This will, in turn, damage the possibility of retail rents recovery.

过去6个月新加坡的零售业租金一直相对较低。中部地区零售租金指数比去年下降了1.7%。高力国际称新加坡租金降幅自去年以来已有所放缓,预计明年大型零售完工量将逐渐减少。随着经济放缓零售地产市场普遍遭遇寒潮,消费者信心可能大受影响。这将反过来降低零售租金回升的可能性。



The most affected sectors in growth were retail and wholesale trade, which dropped 3.2% and the manufacturing sector that shrunk by 3.1%. Singapore’s Trade and Industry Ministry has indicated that the economic downturn is partly a result of the ongoing trade dispute between China and the US. In the second quarter, China reported a 6.2% growth, which is its lowest on record synonymous to the economic slump in Singapore. The ministry indicates that a larger than expected decline in economic growth in China as a result of US tariffs could lead to a drop in imports in China, which will negatively impact on Singapore’s growth.

新加坡受影响最大的是零售业和批发贸易,分别下降3.2%和3.1%。新加坡贸易工业部表示经济低迷在一定程度上是中美贸易争端的结果。今年第二季度中国经济增长6.2%,创历史最低水平,与新加坡经济衰退类同。新加坡商务部表示美国关税导致的中国经济增长降幅超过预期,可能导致中国进口额下降。这将对新加坡经济增长产生负面影响。

According to Carlos Casanova, an economist at Coface, Singapore is an indicator for the slowing economic growth globally. Therefore what is being witnessed in Singapore is that the economy will experience a recession in the third quarter of 2019. Singapore has experienced a decline in imports and exports in the past few months. For instance, exports decline by 17.3% in June, which is the worst in six years.

经济学家卡洛斯•卡萨诺瓦表示新加坡是全球经济增长放缓的一个指标新加坡目前的情况是经济将在2019年第三季度经历衰退。过去几个月新加坡的进出口业出现下降。例如新加坡6月份出口额下降了17.3%,这是6年来降幅最严重的一次。