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Trump Could Be the Next George H.W. Bush

特朗普可能是下一个老布什



(BloombergOpinion) -- Donald Trump is dangerously close to becoming the first Republicanpresident since George H.W. Bush to raise taxes. According to the TaxFoundation, if the tariffs already announced by Trump go into effect, they willamount to a $200 billion annual tax increase. That’s larger than the $165billion average annual reduction in 2017’s Tax Cut and Jobs Act.

(彭博社)——唐纳德·特朗普快要成为自老布什以来首位增税的共和党总统。据税收基金会称,如果特朗普已经宣布的关税生效,每年将增加2000亿美元的税收。这比2017年减税和就业法案中1650亿美元的平均年减幅还要大。

Bush’sbrazen break with Republican orthodoxy, along with a sluggish economy andbroken promises, made him a one-term president. If Trump’s not careful, he mayjoin him.
Inhis 1988 campaign, Bush famously asked the public to read his lips when hepromised “no new taxes.” While Bush had been Ronald Reagan’s vice president, hecame from an earlier generation of moderate Republicans. Movement conservativesalways had doubts about his fealty to their low-tax agenda.

布什厚颜无耻地打破了共和党的正统观念,加上经济疲软和食言,使他只担任了一届总统。如果特朗普不小心谨慎,他可能会步入他的后尘。
在1988年的竞选中,老布什曾做过著名的承诺,“看我的嘴型-----不在加税”。虽然布什曾是罗纳德·里根的副总统,但他来自早期的温和派共和党人。保守派运动人士一直怀疑他对他们低税收议程的忠诚。

Asit turned out, those concerns were justified. In 1990, two years after asuccessful campaign based in part on a commitment to fight Congress’s attemptsto raise taxes, Bush faced a rising deficit and a Congress reluctant to cutdomestic spending. He caved. In June he announced that he was willing to accepta budget that not only cut defense spending but also included tax increases.

事实证明,这些担忧是有道理的。1990年,布什竞选成功的两年后,部分基于对国会增税的承诺,他面临着不断上升的赤字,和国会不愿削减国内开支的局面。他屈服了。6月,他宣布愿意接受一项预算,该预算不仅削减国防开支,还包括增税。



Thereality looks different: Every bit of good news is soon undermined by astumble. Tariffs are still rising, and the trade war is taking an increasingtoll on the broader economy.
Sofar the trade war’s effect has been felt primarily in business investment.Analysis from JP Morgan Chase & Co., however, suggests that consumers willsoon be feeling the pinch as well. If fully implemented, this next phase ofTrump’s tariffs will cost the average household up to $1,795 per year — $495more than the bank’s estimate of the average increase in disposable income fromtax reform. (The biggest tax cuts in the 2017 law were on the corporate side;they weren’t paid out to any actual humans.)

现实情况看起来有所不同: 每一个好消息都很快被一个挫折所破坏。关税仍在上涨,贸易战对更广泛的经济造成的负面影响越来越大。
到目前为止,贸易战的影响主要体现在商业投资上。不过,摩根大通的分析显示,消费者很快也会感到手头拮据。如果特朗普的下一阶段关税得到全面实施,普通家庭每年的平均支出将高达1795美元---比世行估计的税收改革带来的可支配收入平均增长高出495美元。(2017年法案中最大的减税是针对企业的; 并不是任何现实的人。)

Ifconsumer spending starts to slip, there won’t be much left propping up economicgrowth. This combination of weak growth, a rising tax burden and brokenpromises echoes the 1992 election. In addition, Trump is already accumulatingprimary challengers who will no doubt criticize him for his failure to deliver.When the Democrats pile on, it will be that much harder for the president tomake his case for re-election.

如果消费者支出开始下滑,支撑经济增长的力量将所剩无几。疲软的经济增长、不断增加的税收负担以及食言的组合,与1992年的大选如出一辙。此外,特朗普已经在积累初选对手,他们无疑会批评他未能兑现承诺。当民主党人一拥而上的时候,总统想要再次竞选连任就会变得更加困难。

Intone and substance, Donald Trump and George H.W. Bush are nearly polaropposites. In terms of their economic and political circumstances, however,they are eerily similar — in a way that should raise some doubts about Trump’schances of re-election.

在语气和实质内容上,唐纳德·特朗普和乔治·布什几乎截然相反。然而,就他们的经济和政治环境而言,他们惊人地相似——在某种程度上,这应该会让人对特朗普连任的机会产生一些怀疑。